The CFTC opened a formal investigation on April 15, covering at least $1.45 billion in combined positions from the first two episodes. The agency has requested trader identification data from CME Group and the Intercontinental Exchange. CFTC Director of Enforcement David Miller has publicly identified energy market manipulation as a stated enforcement priority, saying manipulation in these markets \u201cdirectly impacts consumers and can have broad inflationary effects.\u201d The agency has authority to subpoena phone records, emails, and text messages, and can coordinate with the Department of Justice, which has grand jury subpoena authority. No charges have been filed. No trader has been publicly named.<\/p>\n
Congressional Democrats have demanded action. Representative Ritchie Torres sent two separate letters to the SEC and CFTC. Representative Sam Liccardo sent a third. Senator Chris Murphy described the pattern as potentially \u201cmind-blowing corruption.\u201d Torres told CNBC: \u201cThe only plausible answer to that question is an insider trader. Any other alternative is a statistical impossibility.\u201d The SEC has not publicly confirmed opening an investigation. The CFTC has.<\/p>\n
The context around the pattern is significant. Jared Kushner, one of Trump\u2019s two Iran envoys currently negotiating the MOU, is simultaneously seeking to raise billions of dollars for his private equity fund from Persian Gulf governments that are directly entangled in the war, according to Axios reporting confirmed this session. The Trump administration has also systematically weakened the enforcement infrastructure that would normally pursue cases like this: the DOJ\u2019s Public Integrity Section, created after Watergate to prosecute corrupt officials, was reduced from 36 lawyers to two last year. Reuters, citing three anonymous officials, reported that the SEC\u2019s top enforcement official resigned after agency leaders blocked her from aggressively pursuing cases touching Trump\u2019s circle.<\/p>\n
The pattern extends beyond futures markets. More than $1 million in profits was collected on prediction market bets on the specific timing of Trump\u2019s war with Iran in late February. Last month, a special forces soldier was indicted by the Department of Justice after making $400,000 on Polymarket by betting on the removal of Venezuelan President Nicol\u00e1s Maduro, allegedly using classified information about an operation he was personally involved in. A White House memo instructed officials not to partake in insider trading on prediction markets. Representative Liccardo told CNBC: \u201cNo one in federal service needs to be \u2018reminded\u2019 of the blatant illegality of personal financial enrichment from their exploitation of confidential information garnered through public service.\u201d<\/p>\n
To be precise about what is confirmed and what is not: the trades are confirmed market records. The timing relative to announcements is confirmed. The CFTC investigation is confirmed. Wednesday\u2019s $125 million gain is confirmed. Profit figures for the other four episodes are not publicly verified \u2014 the notional position sizes and subsequent price moves are documented, but exact entry and exit points are not. The insider trading allegation is what the pattern raises \u2014 the CFTC must establish that traders had access to material nonpublic information, which requires tracing communications and government access logs. That work is ongoing. What can be said without qualification is this: on five separate occasions, approximately $3.7 billion in trades were placed that paid off within hours of market-moving government announcements. The federal government considers it serious enough to investigate formally.<\/p>\n
\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 What American readers need to know:<\/strong> Gas is $4.54 a gallon. The war that produced that price has also produced, on at least five occasions, trades that paid off enormously within hours of market-moving government announcements \u2014 trades that a federal regulator has formally flagged as potentially unlawful. Someone is profiting from this war in ways the CFTC considers serious enough to investigate formally. The people paying at the pump are not those people.<\/p>\n Sources: <\/em>The Kobeissi Letter via Benzinga<\/a><\/em> (financial intelligence \u2014 Wednesday\u2019s $920M trade, $125M confirmed gain, confirmed this session); <\/em>OilPrice.com<\/a><\/em> (industry \u2014 April 17 $760M trade, April ceasefire extension trade, full chronology, confirmed this session); <\/em>Wikipedia \/ Economic impact of the 2026 Iran war<\/a><\/em> (secondary \u2014 five-episode chronology confirmed against primary sources this session); <\/em>Common Dreams \/ Real News Network<\/a><\/em> (US, progressive \u2014 Tier 2 label; FT $580M figure, Polymarket context, confirmed this session); <\/em>Rep. Ritchie Torres congressional website<\/a><\/em> (primary source \u2014 Torres letter text, $950M Reuters figure, confirmed this session); <\/em>CNBC<\/a><\/em> (US \u2014 Liccardo letter, Torres quote, Murphy quote, confirmed this session); <\/em>Armstrong & Bradylyons PLLC<\/a><\/em> (US legal \u2014 CFTC formal investigation April 15, Miller statement, subpoena authority, confirmed this session); <\/em>Axios<\/a><\/em> (US \u2014 Kushner private equity fundraising from Gulf governments, DOJ Public Integrity Section reduction, SEC enforcement official resignation, White House denial, confirmed this session)<\/em><\/p>\n 2. THE IRAN MOU \u2014 WHAT IS ACTUALLY ON THE TABLE<\/p>\n The one-page memorandum of understanding now has confirmed details that go beyond what was publicly known yesterday. Axios, sourcing two US officials and two additional sources, reports that the document being negotiated would commit Iran to a moratorium on uranium enrichment of at least 12 years \u2014 with one source putting 15 years as the likely landing spot. Iran would commit never to seek a nuclear weapon or conduct weaponization-related activities. It would agree to an enhanced inspections regime including snap inspections by UN inspectors and commit not to operate underground nuclear facilities. Two sources with knowledge said Iran would agree to remove its highly enriched uranium from the country \u2014 a key US priority Tehran had previously rejected \u2014 with one option being transfer of the material to the United States.<\/p>\n In exchange, the US would commit to a gradual lifting of sanctions on Iran and the gradual release of billions of dollars in Iranian funds frozen around the world. Iran\u2019s restrictions on shipping through the strait and the US naval blockade would both be gradually lifted during the 30-day negotiating window that follows the MOU\u2019s signing. If those negotiations collapse, US forces would be able to restore the blockade or resume military action. Talks would happen in Islamabad or Geneva.<\/p>\n Iran has not yet formally responded. Its Foreign Ministry confirmed it is reviewing the proposal and will convey its assessment to Pakistan, which is mediating. Iranian President Pezeshkian said Wednesday the US is pursuing maximum pressure and that submission to unilateral American demands is \u201cimpossible.\u201d Those two positions \u2014 reviewing the proposal and calling it impossible \u2014 are not necessarily contradictory; Iran is signaling to its domestic audience while keeping the diplomatic channel open.<\/p>\n Trump\u2019s public statements on Wednesday moved in both directions. In the morning he expressed confidence, saying Iran \u201cwants to make a deal badly.\u201d By afternoon he told the New York Post it was \u201ctoo soon\u201d to prepare to sign, and called it \u201cperhaps, a big assumption\u201d that Iran would accept the proposal. He set no deadline, telling reporters: \u201cNever a deadline. It\u2019ll happen, it\u2019ll happen, but never a deadline.\u201d<\/p>\n Iran moved in its own direction simultaneously. Tehran announced the creation of a new \u201cPersian Gulf Strait Authority\u201d \u2014 a body to permanently regulate vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz on Iran\u2019s terms. The IRGC navy said safe passage would be \u201censured\u201d under new procedures, without specifying what those procedures entail. The announcement positions Iran as the sovereign authority over the strait regardless of what any MOU says \u2014 a negotiating posture that tells Washington what Tehran expects any final deal to look like.<\/p>\n A note for readers on why this matters legally: the Strait of Hormuz is not open international water in the way the mid-Atlantic is. Its navigable channels pass entirely through the territorial waters of Iran and Oman. What makes it an international strait \u2014 legally distinct from a private national waterway \u2014 is that it qualifies under the law of the sea as a passage used for global navigation, giving ships a non-suspendable right of transit regardless of whose territorial waters they cross. Iran signed but never ratified the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which codifies that right. Iran\u2019s position is that non-signatories cannot claim UNCLOS rights. The United States \u2014 which has also not ratified UNCLOS \u2014 disputes that interpretation and treats transit passage as customary international law binding on all states. The Persian Gulf Strait Authority is Iran\u2019s institutional assertion of the coastal sovereignty argument: that the strait passes through Iranian territory, and Iran sets the terms. Washington\u2019s position is that no single country can set those terms unilaterally. That dispute is not new. It is the legal foundation of the entire conflict.<\/p>\n \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 What American readers need to know:<\/strong> The MOU, if signed, does not open the strait immediately. It opens a 30-day negotiating window. The 23,000 civilian sailors stranded in the Gulf, including at least 10 who have died, remain stranded during that window. Brent fell to $98.42 this morning on deal optimism \u2014 down nearly 15 percent from Monday\u2019s high. If the deal holds, gas should follow within days. But Iran has not said yes. Iran has announced its own authority to regulate the strait. And the man negotiating for the US told a reporter yesterday it was \u201ctoo soon\u201d to prepare a signing ceremony. The deal is close. It is not done.<\/p>\n Sources: <\/em>Axios<\/a><\/em> (US \u2014 access journalism model; MOU details including enrichment moratorium, HEU removal, inspections regime, sanctions lifting, Geneva\/Islamabad venues, corroborated by Reuters, CNN, ABC, NPR this session); <\/em>ABC News<\/a><\/em> (US \u2014 Trump \u201cnever a deadline\u201d quote, \u201ctoo soon\u201d New York Post reference, Oval Office remarks, confirmed this session); <\/em>NPR<\/a><\/em> (US confirmation \u2014 Pezeshkian \u201cimpossible\u201d quote, blockade turned around 52 vessels, confirmed this session); <\/em>Benzinga<\/a><\/em> (US \u2014 Persian Gulf Strait Authority announcement, IRGC safe passage statement, confirmed this session); <\/em>The Conversation<\/a><\/em> (academic \u2014 Strait legal status, UNCLOS non-ratification by US and Iran, competing legal frameworks, confirmed this session); <\/em>Lawfare<\/a><\/em> (US legal \u2014 transit passage rights, territorial waters architecture, confirmed this session); <\/em>Trading Economics<\/a><\/em> (markets \u2014 Brent Thursday stabilization above $101, Wednesday close $101.27, intraday low $96.73, confirmed this session)<\/em><\/p>\n 3. EUROPE IS PUSHING BACK AGAINST ISRAEL \u2014 AND MOST AMERICAN READERS DON\u2019T KNOW IT<\/p>\n Something has been building in Europe for two years that American media has largely not explained to American readers. It is now at a genuinely consequential phase, and Wednesday\u2019s news brought it to a new threshold.<\/p>\n Start with Spain. In September 2025, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro S\u00e1nchez announced a total arms embargo on Israel and banned imports from Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank. The legal instrument was Royal Decree-Law 10\/2025, passed by the Spanish cabinet, providing for what it explicitly called \u201curgent measures against the genocide in Gaza.\u201d Israel\u2019s Foreign Minister Gideon Saar called the measures \u201canti-Semitic.\u201d Madrid summoned its ambassador in Israel back for consultations and rejected the allegation directly: Spain \u201cwill not be intimidated in its defence of peace, international law and human rights.\u201d In December 2025, Spain began formally enforcing the settlement product ban \u2014 the largest state-level embargo of Israeli goods since the Arab League boycott. Slovenia had preceded it in August 2025. Neither country\u2019s trade with Israel is large enough to cause economic damage. That is not the point.<\/p>\n The point, as Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu of the Mitvim Institute told the Times of Israel, is that \u201cwhen a country of considerable size like Spain advances a move like this, it gives backing to smaller states to follow.\u201d Spain is not a small state. It is the fourth-largest economy in the eurozone, a NATO member, a permanent presence on the UN Security Council, and a country with a population of 47 million and a long-standing political tradition of solidarity with the Palestinian cause. When Spain acts, it sets the floor for what other European governments can do without being isolated.<\/p>\n The floor has been rising. Spain, Ireland, and Slovenia have formally called for suspension of the EU-Israel Association Agreement \u2014 the trade and cooperation framework that gives Israel preferential access to European markets. The agreement contains a human rights clause. The International Court of Justice\u2019s 2024 advisory opinion found Israel in breach of its obligations under international law. Spain, Ireland, and Slovenia argue the clause requires suspension. The European Commission has acknowledged the argument has legal merit. The proposal has stalled: Germany, Hungary, and the Czech Republic have blocked it, and the qualified majority required \u2014 at least 55 percent of member states representing 65 percent of the EU population \u2014 has not been reached. But Belgium and the Netherlands have moved toward support. France and Italy are watching.<\/p>\n On Wednesday, S\u00e1nchez moved to a new front. He wrote to European Commission President von der Leyen calling for immediate activation of the EU\u2019s Blocking Statute \u2014 a legal instrument designed to protect European citizens from the effects of foreign sanctions. The specific target: US sanctions against the International Criminal Court. In February, Trump signed an executive order sanctioning the ICC after it issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and his former Defense Minister Gallant for war crimes. Trump also sanctioned Francesca Albanese, the UN Special Rapporteur for Palestinian Territories, for her criticisms of Israel. S\u00e1nchez\u2019s letter asked the Commission to use the Blocking Statute to shield both the ICC and Albanese from US sanctions. \u201cThe EU cannot remain idle in the face of this persecution,\u201d he wrote. \u201cSanctioning those who defend international justice puts the entire human rights system at risk.\u201d<\/p>\n This is the architecture of what is happening, stated plainly: the United States has sanctioned the international court that issued arrest warrants for an ally\u2019s leaders. A major European democracy is asking the European Union to use a legal mechanism designed to resist US pressure in order to protect that court. The same European democracy has imposed an arms embargo on that ally. The ally\u2019s foreign minister has called the European democracy\u2019s actions antisemitic. And the United States is simultaneously negotiating an end to a war while its European partners move, concretely and legally, in the opposite direction on the conflict that produced the war.<\/p>\n \ud83c\udf0d TRANSLATOR\u2019S NOTE:<\/strong> European press has been covering this story continuously for two years in a way that American media has not. Euronews has tracked Spain\u2019s legal measures, the EU association agreement fight, and the ICC warrant standoff as interconnected threads in a single story about whether Europe will use its economic leverage to enforce international law. The IFRI analysis, published this week by the French Institute of International Relations, frames the story as one of escalation within continuity \u2014 Spain\u2019s position has been building since October 7, 2023, and each escalation has made the next one easier for other European states to follow. The framing in European coverage is not primarily about Israel or Palestine \u2014 it is about what kind of actor the European Union intends to be in international law. Spain is making the argument that the EU\u2019s credibility as a rules-based institution depends on applying its own rules consistently. Germany and others are making the counter-argument that geopolitical stability requires pragmatic restraint. That debate is unresolved. But the direction of travel is notable: two years ago, suspending the EU-Israel Association Agreement was a fringe position. Today it has the formal support of three member states, the conditional support of several more, and the European Commission has acknowledged it has legal merit.<\/p>\n \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 What American readers need to know:<\/strong> The United States has sanctioned the international court that issued arrest warrants for Israel\u2019s prime minister. America\u2019s closest European partners are formally asking the EU to use legal mechanisms to resist those sanctions. Spain has imposed a total arms embargo on Israel. The ICC arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant remain outstanding \u2014 meaning that if either man travels to a country that recognizes ICC jurisdiction and chooses to enforce the warrants, they could be arrested. Several European countries would be legally obligated to execute the warrants under international law if either man traveled to their territory. The Iran war has consumed American diplomatic attention for 68 days. The conflict that the war grew out of \u2014 and the legal and diplomatic framework around it \u2014 has not paused while Washington looked at the strait.<\/p>\n Sources: <\/em>Times of Israel<\/a><\/em> (Israel, centrist \u2014 Spain\u2019s Royal Decree-Law 10\/2025, settlement product ban, Sion-Tzidkiyahu quote, EU cascade analysis, confirmed this session); <\/em>Al Jazeera<\/a><\/em> (Qatar, state-funded\/editorially independent \u2014 September 2025 arms embargo, S\u00e1nchez speech, Saar \u201canti-Semitic\u201d response, confirmed this session); <\/em>Euronews<\/a><\/em> (European, broadly centrist \u2014 EU association agreement fight, member state positions, Kallas statement, settler sanctions, confirmed this session); <\/em>Common Dreams<\/a><\/em> (US, progressive \u2014 Tier 2 label; S\u00e1nchez Blocking Statute letter to von der Leyen, Wednesday May 6 dateline, Trump ICC sanctions, Albanese sanctions, confirmed this session); <\/em>IFRI<\/a><\/em> (French Institute of International Relations, non-partisan \u2014 Spain foreign policy architecture, Royal Decree-Law history, confirmed this session)<\/em><\/p>\n WAR DAY 68 | NUMBERS AT PUBLICATION<\/strong> Sourcing note: Iran civilian casualties sourced to HRANA (US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency), a floor estimate based on activist networks inside Iran. Figure frozen since ceasefire. Lebanon figure not yet updated for Wednesday\u2019s strikes including the Beirut attack; Wednesday\u2019s confirmed toll of at least 13 killed will be reflected in the next tracker update. The 10 civilian sailor deaths are a separate category confirmed by Rubio on May 5. Gas price note: wholesale prices fell sharply Wednesday on deal optimism; retail pump prices lag the wholesale market and are expected to follow within days if current trajectory holds.<\/em><\/p>\n ALSO DEVELOPING \u2014 for the curious:<\/strong><\/p>\n Ukraine \u2014 Russia\u2019s ceasefire starts tomorrow.<\/strong> Russia\u2019s Victory Day ceasefire begins Friday May 8 for May 8-9. Ukraine\u2019s has been in effect since Monday midnight. Russia violated it 1,820 times in the first day. The Victory Day parade is Saturday without military hardware. Putin is reported by the Irish Times, citing European intelligence sources, to be conducting the war from underground bunkers in Krasnodar while state media broadcasts recorded footage to project normality. Watch for whether Russia observes its own ceasefire more carefully than it observed Ukraine\u2019s.<\/p>\n Flotilla \u2014 Sunday hearing, eighth day in custody.<\/strong> Abukeshek and \u00c1vila remain in Shikma Prison without charges, on secret evidence, on their eighth day in custody and entering their seventh day of hunger strike. The court ordered medical monitoring. Lula and S\u00e1nchez have personally demanded their release. Italy\u2019s prosecutorial investigation continues. Next hearing Sunday May 10.<\/p>\n Lebanon \u2014 death toll update pending.<\/strong> Wednesday\u2019s Beirut strike and attacks across southern Lebanon killed at least 13 people and injured dozens. The Al Jazeera tracker has not yet updated to reflect Wednesday\u2019s toll. Lebanon\u2019s death toll in this edition reflects the pre-Wednesday figure and will be updated in tonight\u2019s Evening Edition.<\/p>\n \u201cWhenever the people are well informed, they can be trusted with their own government.\u201d \u2014 Thomas Jefferson, 1789<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The View From Everywhere Else Weekday morning and evening editions. Saturdays once. Good news on Sundays. All sources labeled. 1. NEARLY $3.7 BILLION PLACED AHEAD OF FIVE ANNOUNCEMENTS \u2014 AND A FEDERAL INVESTIGATION IS OPEN This is not one suspicious trade. It is a pattern. Five times since February 28, large crude oil short positions […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_oxygen_hide_in_design_set":false,"_oxygen_tags":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[143],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-502","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-patreon"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/rudymartinez.wtf\/stuff-and-nonsense\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/502","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/rudymartinez.wtf\/stuff-and-nonsense\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/rudymartinez.wtf\/stuff-and-nonsense\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rudymartinez.wtf\/stuff-and-nonsense\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rudymartinez.wtf\/stuff-and-nonsense\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=502"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/rudymartinez.wtf\/stuff-and-nonsense\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/502\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/rudymartinez.wtf\/stuff-and-nonsense\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=502"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rudymartinez.wtf\/stuff-and-nonsense\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=502"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rudymartinez.wtf\/stuff-and-nonsense\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=502"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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\ud83c\uddee\ud83c\uddf7 Iran: 3,636+ killed (HRANA floor estimate \u2014 1,701 civilians including 254+ children, 1,221 military, 714 unclassified; FROZEN since Day 38\/April 7; no updated HRANA report confirmed this session)
\ud83c\uddf1\ud83c\udde7 Lebanon: At least 2,702 killed (Al Jazeera tracker, May 5 \u2014 not yet updated for Wednesday\u2019s strikes)
\ud83c\uddee\ud83c\uddf1 Israel: At least 26 killed (Al Jazeera tracker \u2014 potentially stale; carried with attribution)
\ud83c\udf0d Gulf states: At least 28 killed (Al Jazeera tracker \u2014 potentially stale; carried with attribution)
\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 US military: 13 combat deaths confirmed (CENTCOM); at least 10 civilian sailors confirmed dead from Iran\u2019s blockade while stranded (Rubio, May 5 \u2014 not included in official tallies)
\ud83d\udee2\ufe0f Brent crude: ~$98.42\/barrel (OilPrice.com<\/a>, confirmed by editor this session \u2014 stabilizing after Wednesday\u2019s intraday low of $96.73; down from Monday\u2019s $115.24 high; deal optimism driving sustained retreat)
\u26fd US gas: $4.54\/gallon (Forbes, last confirmed yesterday \u2014 wholesale gas fell 5% Wednesday; pump prices expected to follow within days if deal optimism holds)<\/p>\n
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